tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-296185132012-01-28T15:38:01.336Zsnowflake5Location: UKsnowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.comBlogger7541100tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-76009148259461756632011-12-27T14:35:00.007Z2011-12-27T16:06:39.334ZLabour made some strategic wins in 2011In the political sections of the press it's wall-to-wall articles and editorials about how Ed Miliband needs to be toppled from the Labour leadership. Newsnight even headlined a "Should Ed go" feature on the night before the Feltham and Heston by-election. Luckily the voters ignored them and returned a Labour MP with a bigger majority and a healthy share of the vote.Why all the wall-to-wall snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-11246063826710002562011-12-27T14:35:00.001Z2011-12-27T14:35:30.989Zsnowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-37611847867373138712011-12-11T16:16:00.006Z2011-12-11T16:59:23.966ZThe Americans have moved on already - for them, the challenge to their vision is BerlinThe British papers are understandably obsessed with Cameron's EU veto, with the right-wing press thrilled, the LibDem press (BBC, Guardian and Indie) appalled and the financial press (FT and Economist) deeply concerned. (Labour's sole media representative, the Mirror, has ignored the EU crisis entirely and focused on X-Factor and Tories-in-a-Nazi-themed-stag-party-scandal!).The Americans however snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-11863846674354861602011-12-11T16:16:00.001Z2011-12-11T16:16:20.988Zsnowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-17505958812781964312011-11-01T02:02:00.009Z2011-11-01T03:35:28.022ZEnd game for Greece: Papandreou calls a referendumThere is shock across the eurozone because George Papandreou has decided to call a referendum over the bailout that was cobbled together a few days ago.Papandreou is the socialist prime minister elected in Oct 2009 to sort out the mess created by the previous uber corrupt Conservative government who not only cooked the books but spent money they didn't have employing Goldman Sachs, who promptly snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-91386802003497251252011-11-01T02:02:00.001Z2011-11-01T02:02:21.340Zsnowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-81590700332263899922011-08-16T23:42:00.004+01:002011-08-16T23:45:40.603+01:00Dave's Broken GovernmentAn apt pair of comments from the Telegraph that I thought deserved a wider audience:
Question:
6 months for stealing £3.50 worth of bottled water.
18 months for being in possession of a stolen television
48 months for calling for riots via Facebook.
How much for hacking into the mobile phones of hundreds of people, including the mobile phone of a murderd child, and then undertaking a snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-14395252904913344582011-08-16T23:42:00.001+01:002011-08-16T23:42:43.816+01:00snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-1855958719902924062011-08-10T21:02:00.007+01:002011-08-10T21:51:29.724+01:00The Standards of a Country Are Set at the TopI just thought I'd remind readers of my 2007 post on the Bullingdon Club - it's pertinent because we have a Bullingdon government - Cameron, Osborne, and Boris Johnson were all members.
Here's some choice bits from this article in the Oxford Student of what this club got up to:
Last December[2005], images of snivelling Bullingdon members were splashed all over the tabloids after all 17 members snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-31084921812858310642011-08-10T21:00:00.001+01:002011-08-10T21:00:52.050+01:00snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-72589588230583071872011-08-09T06:57:00.005+01:002011-08-09T08:16:28.793+01:00Shocked by what is happening in LondonBack on December 10th, I wrote a post titled Why have the Con-Dems lost control of the street?, where I made this comment:
When the first student protest got violent, the feeling was that the Met had been caught off guard - they simply didn't have enough police on hand to deal with it. But now it's the fourth protest, and they still haven't got a grip. Have they cut their budget so much they snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-43176651438380900562011-08-09T06:57:00.001+01:002011-08-09T06:57:56.222+01:00snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-53439051805935518762011-07-15T02:29:00.007+01:002011-07-15T03:06:21.297+01:00So Honest Ed was Victorious!Let's recap on the past week and a bit:* the Tories didn't want a judge-led enquiry - Ed forced them to accede to one* the Tories didn't want the enquiry to start till after the police investigation was over (a few years down the line) - Ed forced them to agree to one starting now* the Tories didn't want to refer the BSkyB bid to the Competition Commission - Ed kept up the pressure so that there snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-67515543460388700552011-07-15T02:28:00.001+01:002011-07-15T02:28:50.361+01:00snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-42323410178825143562011-07-07T02:21:00.005+01:002011-07-07T02:46:20.935+01:00Honest Ed v the Dirty DiggerOne of the most striking things about News at Ten was the comment from Nick Robinson saying that the Murdoch empire have said that "If Ed Miliband thinks he can win, he's about to be proved very wrong". Clearly News International do not regard this as a battle between them and the political establishment, or them versus the law of the land, but them versus Ed Miliband. How sweet of them to snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-86226234298060331382011-07-07T02:21:00.001+01:002011-07-07T02:21:46.530+01:00snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-35259763978897091052011-04-28T00:04:00.009+01:002011-04-28T00:23:27.340+01:00The Royal Snub to the Labour PartyThe huge, and I mean HUGE news is that while William and Kate have invited all the dictators of the world to their wedding (the Crown Prince of Bahrain, King Mswati III of Swaziland, Saudi tyrants and Robert Mugabe's personal ambassador to London), they have deliberately excluded two Labour former PMs (whilst inviting former Tory PMs).We've had a ton of excuses come out from the palace - that snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-64894023195879987362011-04-28T00:04:00.001+01:002011-04-28T00:04:33.730+01:00snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-39474915862303251092011-03-24T00:28:00.007Z2011-03-24T01:21:32.448ZLooks like Osborne is determined to turn the UK into IrelandIn 2006, George Osborne penned a piece for the Times called Look and learn from across the Irish Sea, which he began with the memorable opening phrase, A GENERATION ago, the very idea that a British politician would go to Ireland to see how to run an economy would have been laughable.It's still laughable, but he doesn't seem to get it, and today's budget was a continuation of his stated aim to snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-48146303090705235612011-03-24T00:28:00.001Z2011-03-24T00:28:18.807Zsnowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-5624842526509869552011-01-30T20:36:00.005Z2011-01-30T20:53:27.512ZThe public sector unions should enact a personal spending strike rather than an actual strikeTrade unions have been meeting to consider striking in response to the public-spending cuts, and the Tories have been rubbing their hands in the hopes of stirring hatred towards the unions and trying to turn public opinion against them.I've got a better idea - instead of the unions striking, they should ask their members to go on a personal spending strike. They should honour their employment snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-38175983093295411672011-01-30T20:36:00.001Z2011-01-30T20:36:31.079Zsnowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-66941986349278348342011-01-25T15:17:00.008Z2011-01-25T15:51:43.337ZEconomy contracted in Q4 2010The only people shocked by today's bad figures are Tories. I'm sure they will rush out to blame the weather - but even if you strip out cold-weather effects, growth would have been non-existent. This is very serious because the contraction happened in Q4, which is the most important trading period of the year. If we can't grow in Q4, when can we grow?Ed Balls and others pointed out that if you snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-51522337885020011062011-01-25T15:17:00.001Z2011-01-25T15:17:47.324Zsnowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-30757277974921733882011-01-14T14:51:00.004Z2011-01-14T15:01:26.215ZOldham East and Saddleworth by-electionSo it turned out to be a comfortable victory for Labour, with a majority greater than Phil Woolas got in 1997 at the height of Labour's New Dawn.The significance of this election was that it was the first since the early 1980's where Labour faced tactical voting against us, and we were nervous, as not only had the LibDems got within 103 votes of us at the 2010 general election but the combined snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-10511016104067432822011-01-14T14:51:00.001Z2011-01-14T14:51:11.688Zsnowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-9729180456105672302010-12-27T15:46:00.008Z2010-12-27T16:05:48.244ZTory Vat Bombshell gets dropped on Jan 4thIt's hard to avoid news of the Tory Vat Bombshell getting dropped on January 4th. Everytime you turn on the TV, there is a retailer spending hard cash on prime time television adverts warning the public that the Conservatives are going to hammer them with a VAT rise even though the economy is still in a fragile state.We should also note that during the election campaign, George Osborne snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-90376376949004925302010-12-27T15:46:00.001Z2010-12-27T15:46:07.901Zsnowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-53310240234939087232010-12-10T18:44:00.006Z2010-12-10T19:43:17.966ZWhy have the Con-Dems lost control of the street?The 13 Labour years look remarkably peaceful as well as prosperous now, don't they? How have the Tories lost control so quickly?Some part of the responsibility must be down to Boris Johnson, who seems to spend more time guzzling and having affairs, than running the capital. It's a massive contrast to the way Ken Livingstone ran things. Trafalgar Square was a mess in 1999, but he cleaned it up andsnowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-9490157779441311442010-12-10T18:43:00.000Z2010-12-10T18:44:01.428Zsnowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-22510573155963642762010-11-29T23:02:00.004Z2010-11-29T23:47:06.773ZHouse prices slump for the fifth month runningToday Hometrack reported that house prices slumped for the fifth month running, and the BoE reported that mortgage approvals fell for the sixth month in a row. Why is this important? Because house prices impinge directly on middle Britain.I've written before that I believe that slumping house prices were responsible for the thumping defeat that the Tories got in 1997. Though the economy was snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-69616074087987449612010-11-29T23:02:00.001Z2010-11-29T23:02:05.760Zsnowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-44130295961066564112010-10-21T00:02:00.009+01:002010-10-21T01:23:58.433+01:00CSR VerdictThe most stunning thing that came out of the CSR for me was this: The ConDems are planning to increase the International Development budget by 37%. A 37% increase on what Labour spent (even in boom years). 37%!And they are cutting the welfare budget by £18bn, and aiming the distress squarely on the most vulnerable such as the disabled.They are taking mobility money away from people who can't walksnowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-69583397050057834452010-10-21T00:02:00.001+01:002010-10-21T00:02:08.889+01:00snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-69104624623588586082010-10-16T17:00:00.006+01:002010-10-21T01:31:33.840+01:00How much do election pledges matter?There've been a gazillion U-turns by both the Conservatives and LibDems since they entered government, but none so massive than the LibDem pledge to abolish tuition fees, only to double them as soon as they got into power.The response from the LibDems like Cable is to bleat that they "didn't expect to be in government" when they made the pledges - in other words, they felt they could safely tricksnowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-46184776385388978482010-10-16T17:00:00.001+01:002010-10-16T17:00:41.361+01:00snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-33050453586243763052010-09-25T21:15:00.006+01:002010-09-25T21:37:31.657+01:00Congratulations Ed MilibandI can't tell you how relieved I am that Ed Miliband defeated David Miliband for the Labour leadership. I'm sorry for David M and all, but he would have been wrong for the leadership. And my fave Ed Balls came a respectable third.I think Labour people will be pretty happy with this result. The press of course are spitting feathers as their pick didn't get the job. One meme going around is that he snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-48950919708168199742010-09-25T21:14:00.001+01:002010-09-25T21:14:54.924+01:00snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-13190393849940705392010-08-31T13:24:00.003+01:002010-08-31T14:03:37.406+01:00The Labour Leadership ElectionI've been way too busy to post, and to be truthful haven't had the time to follow the leadership contest closely either - but I'm not sure that's entirely a bad thing. This is how most voters absorb their politics, on the periphery of their lives, in snippets. Tiny things seep through, lots of things that the chatterati think are important don't, and a conclusion is formed.So here's who I'm snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-75390880068936347472010-08-31T13:23:00.001+01:002010-08-31T13:23:54.152+01:00snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-55705483789961364552010-07-19T16:39:00.005+01:002010-07-19T17:01:10.243+01:00Labour edges up in the pollsIn the opinion polls since the general election, Labour has slowly been edging up. We were about 32% in mid June, and that went up to about 35% in early July. And then we appeared to be stuck.But the latest poll from YouGov (fieldwork 15th - 16th July) shows us on the move again. Here's the figures:Con 40%Lab 37%LD 15%So we are within 3% of the Tories. And the cause of this sudden shift? In my snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-77495715420974719292010-07-19T16:39:00.001+01:002010-07-19T16:39:32.564+01:00snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-85733712161159377662010-07-12T00:38:00.007+01:002010-07-12T01:05:44.991+01:00Congratulations Spain... and now is the cue for Zapatero to announce that Spain only wins the World Cup, European Championships, the Paris Open and Wimbledon Championships when a socialist government is in power!Meanwhile, in Britain everything has turned to ashes since the ConDems took power - we were bottom in the Eurovision, out in the second round in the World Cup (after coming second to the USA in the first snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com12tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-58922829574264348192010-07-12T00:38:00.001+01:002010-07-12T00:38:12.999+01:00snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-75283314128391265942010-06-23T12:58:00.007+01:002010-06-23T13:38:21.988+01:00Minutes from BoE Monetary Policy CommitteeThe minutes have been published of the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee for their meeting in the first week in June - and the shock is that for the first time in two years, one member, Andrew Sentence, has voted to raise interest rates.He was worried about inflation, and the minutes show that other members agreed with him in discussion (though they didn't vote for a rise in interest rates). And snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-35945718418834049252010-06-23T12:58:00.001+01:002010-06-23T12:58:27.258+01:00snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-82913808839230763942010-06-22T16:16:00.006+01:002010-06-22T16:37:54.784+01:00Tory VAT Rise was being planned as long ago as August 2009Lots of Coalition supporters are trying to claim that this VAT rise was unplanned and merely a consequence of coalition negotiations. But actually it was planned as long ago as August 2009.The Sunday Telegraph, which always has good contacts within the Tory party, reported on 8th August 2009 in an article titled Tories study plans for 20pc VAT that "The proposal [to raise VAT to 20%] is being “snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-75714749538774543692010-06-22T16:16:00.001+01:002010-06-22T16:16:21.464+01:00snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-49862693416808620662010-06-05T13:00:00.010+01:002010-06-05T13:11:29.264+01:00Duplicitous Dems: Nick Clegg on Expenses in the DebatesFound this classic of Nick Clegg on expenses, where he condemns CGT avoidance, and expense abuse, and then says "I have to stress that not a single LibDem MP has done any of these things".snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-57634328587934470442010-06-05T12:59:00.000+01:002010-06-05T13:00:31.552+01:00snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-33031024741377997402010-05-31T15:35:00.012+01:002010-05-31T16:00:14.210+01:00Re-emergence of expenses scandal puts Ed Miliband in pole position for Labour leadershipToday we have the Telegraph going for Danny Alexander - it's clear that they will continue to use their treasure-trove of unredacted expense accounts to attack anyone who was in the last parliament.IMO, this puts Ed Miliband in pole position for Labour leadership because his expenses are so low.Here's what they were in the last parliament:2008/9 £7,7832007/8 £7,6702006/7 £7,7952005/6 £7,246The snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-43822193668726003882010-05-31T15:35:00.001+01:002010-05-31T15:35:27.744+01:00snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-71229749001868221712010-05-29T21:30:00.005+01:002010-05-29T22:44:55.515+01:00Press gets a govt scalp just three weeks into new parliamentFurther to my previous post on David Laws and expenses, David Laws has resigned. Honeymoon over for the new ConDem Coalition, just three weeks into their government.There appears to be a lot of gnashing of teeth from both the Tory and LibDem camps, indeed some on Conservative Home are talking about boycotting the Telegraph, which is childish in the extreme!I suppose none of them were really snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-84925787618303356122010-05-29T21:30:00.001+01:002010-05-29T21:30:24.868+01:00snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-42409908459016058892010-05-29T02:12:00.009+01:002010-05-29T03:05:28.726+01:00David Laws and ExpensesAfter all the showy grandstanding done by David Laws on how he wanted to save government money (even insisting that ministers walk to meetings instead of using cars), it turns out that he himself was claiming about £40,000 to subsidize his lover by saying he was renting rooms in his house.Now that expenses has reared it's ugly head again, I thought it would be a good time to look at the expenses snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-11472465177485959352010-05-29T02:12:00.001+01:002010-05-29T02:12:35.293+01:00snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-84743564744643662552010-05-24T14:13:00.005+01:002010-05-24T14:41:28.880+01:00George Osborne's Spending CutsOsborne unveiled his spending cuts by claiming that unless he cut, debt repayments would "spiral out of control".As it happens, the deficit is falling. Contrary to the claims made by Osborne and Laws that the Labour government's projections were too optimistic, it turns out that Darling was being too pessimistic: last year's deficit turned out to be £156 bn undershooting Darling's projection of snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-16258133934627961142010-05-24T14:13:00.001+01:002010-05-24T14:13:04.423+01:00snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-14455224983695684472010-05-21T14:19:00.006+01:002010-05-21T14:51:53.119+01:00How worried are the Tories about the Daily Mail?Ever since the ConDem Coalition was formed, the Daily Mail has been attacking, with a negative story pretty much every day. Their narrative is that the Coalition is attacking Middle Britain, and that Cameron is a desperately weak man who is being walked all over by Clegg, who is really running the country. This is clearly bothering Cameron, who penned an article in the Mail today with the title snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-28828212431806458952010-05-21T14:19:00.001+01:002010-05-21T14:19:40.370+01:00snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-67354024480294562010-05-19T17:40:00.006+01:002010-05-19T21:20:07.062+01:00Ed Balls brings a touch of Essex Man to the Labour Leadership ContestIn the Newsnight focus group on the Labour leadership contest a few nights ago, one member of the group said that Ed Balls looked like the type of bloke who could be found behind a kebab counter. Which made everyone laugh because there is a touch of Essex man about him (he actually comes from Norfolk, but for our purposes lets use "Essex" as a shorthand for the culture of those regions east of snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-52110252558795077922010-05-19T17:39:00.000+01:002010-05-19T17:40:00.789+01:00snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-80459174470417031212010-05-15T19:34:00.011+01:002010-05-16T19:23:46.385+01:00The Post Election PollsWe have two polls, signalling a sharp increase in the Labour share of the vote since the general election and the formation of the ConDem coalition:ComRes: 38%, Lab, 34%, LD 21%ICM: Con 38%, Lab 33%, LD 21%Note that both these pollsters have a habit of overstating the LibDems and understating Labour. Here's how their pre-election polls compared with the actual General Election result:Election snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-72203771686136139172010-05-15T19:34:00.001+01:002010-05-15T19:34:15.208+01:00snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-31989832528476948572010-05-14T13:51:00.005+01:002010-05-14T14:21:27.723+01:00Can we persuade Yvette Cooper to run?Someone who commented on my previous post noted how narrow Ed Ball's majority was in the recent general election - it's a major handicap to him becoming Labour leader. So I guess that's him crossed off the list. What about Yvette Cooper instead? She's ruled herself out, but can the Labour movement persuade her to change her mind?She would make a decent contrast to the bland Miliband brothers, andsnowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-39092110670426153472010-05-14T13:51:00.001+01:002010-05-14T13:51:45.015+01:00snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-26433246751659449822010-05-13T00:55:00.005+01:002010-05-13T01:47:18.592+01:00ComDem CGT rise will precipitate a property crashFirst some background on Capital Gains Tax (CGT).CGT was 40% under John Major, with taper relief which took into account that part of capital gains was down purely to inflation, but distorted the market in that it forced entrepreneurs and shareholders to wait ten years or more before their CGT tax dwindled to anything bearable.Gordon Brown as chancellor changed this to a flat 10%, so that snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-45971970527556401442010-05-13T00:55:00.001+01:002010-05-13T00:55:12.144+01:00snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-65718830216892059532010-05-12T17:02:00.008+01:002010-05-12T17:24:51.287+01:00Here's how the Daily Mail welcomed the first day of the ConDem'd government...They are not happy at the new love-in. Why, taxes were lower under the Labour government (especially CGT)! If they continue in this vein how long before we see a Daily Mail editorial saying "Come back Gord, all is forgiven..."?Meanwhile when the Osborne cuts make their way through the system, watch for the Mirror, Guardian and Independent turn sharply negative too. And there remains just one snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-84016705968065099672010-05-12T17:02:00.001+01:002010-05-12T17:02:16.784+01:00snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-81748521926216616682010-05-11T21:52:00.002+01:002010-05-11T22:05:47.582+01:00Farewell Gordon BrownSo Gordon Brown went to the palace today to tender his resignation and advise the Queen to summon David Cameron.The details of the last extraordinary 24 hours are still murky, but I understand that the Labour team slowly realised that the LibDems were not really serious about coalition talks, they were merely talking to put pressure on the Conservatives (with good effect). As soon as Gord snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-87051576496586896802010-05-11T21:51:00.000+01:002010-05-11T21:52:00.738+01:00snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-80820354383930046032010-05-11T01:31:00.004+01:002010-05-11T02:10:21.521+01:00The Rainbow CoalitionI'm a bit distressed at Brown stepping down. I like our Grumpy Gord, and I was of the school that felt we were better off sitting this hung parliament out in opposition, with Brown as our leader for at least 18 months before we chose a new leader at the optimum time for the next election.However, it appears that after five days negotiating with the Tories, the LibDems were unable to come to termssnowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-34930452645685519942010-05-11T01:31:00.001+01:002010-05-11T01:31:28.075+01:00snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-76315152379494525462010-05-09T02:08:00.005+01:002010-05-09T02:31:08.630+01:00So will it be a Con-Dem'd government or a Rainbow Coalition?If you'd told me a week ago that Alex Salmond would be offering to go into coalition with Labour, I'd have disbelieved you. Yet that's just what he's done; offered to go into a rainbow coalition with Labour, and with an admonishment to the LibDems that they should follow suit.Is he serious and will he follow through? The answer is yes to both - but I suspect like most of us he thinks a Con-Dem'd snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-17431207331720746802010-05-09T02:08:00.001+01:002010-05-09T02:08:50.097+01:00snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-33247269142146704072010-05-07T16:22:00.003+01:002010-05-07T16:50:28.343+01:00The Election ResultPhew! We started off at 10 p.m. last night seriously worried that we might not be able to match Michael Foot's 209 seats. In the event, we appear to have got 258 seats - just 53 seats less than the Tories with one seat yet to declare as of the time of writing this.Why is Labour so cheerful about this? Well we've done what we set out to do, which is to deprive the Conservatives of a snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-11129558055223156882010-05-07T16:21:00.000+01:002010-05-07T16:22:03.755+01:00snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-58216859713364215862010-04-25T15:59:00.002+01:002010-04-25T16:30:58.296+01:00The Hung ParliamentToday we have news of Cameron putting out feelers to the LibDems, saying that he would consider electoral reform if it meant a coalition with them, and the LibDems saying that they won't enter any coalition with a party in third place in votes (and most polls show Labour in this position).So we are very likely looking at a Lib-Con coalition, with Labour in opposition. Labour shouldn't be unhappy snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-57450564805061858522010-04-25T15:53:00.001+01:002010-04-25T15:53:56.793+01:00snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-29255065301097670862010-04-18T21:22:00.006+01:002010-04-18T22:43:29.754+01:00Now new poll threatens LabourLatest YouGov poll shows LD 33%, Con 32% and Lab 26%. Obviously the LibDems are now starting to eat into the Labour vote.So what should we do? Nothing. We gain nothing by attacking the LibDems. It would be like attacking Susan Boyle (or like Hague attacking Blair over Diana's funeral - remember that?) We just need to wait it out and see if it blows over.Suppose there is a hung parliament, what snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-45375619558448558232010-04-18T21:21:00.001+01:002010-04-18T21:21:49.390+01:00snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-27675195195363673602010-04-18T01:46:00.005+01:002010-04-18T03:50:29.651+01:00The Polls!It turns out that voters really do judge personality in 5 seconds. Nick Clegg sealed the deal when voters looked into his eyes during his closeup at the start of the debates and decided they liked him. Cameron's eyes are too small (like Kinnock's) and our poor Gord is blind in one eye, legally blind in the other and couldn't locate the camera to look into it in the first place.The polls since thesnowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-90625160048168377052010-04-18T01:46:00.001+01:002010-04-18T01:46:28.737+01:00snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-78978021187854055172010-04-16T10:07:00.006+01:002010-04-16T11:19:23.664+01:00The first TV debateIt's been interesting reading responses to the TV debates, I can't help feeling we were all watching something different (but then we all bring our own biases to the event however much we try to be objective).Anyway, here's my take. I thought Clegg was seriously good at the opening speech, he looked directly at the camera and the camera seemed to get closer, allowing his head and shoulders to snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-41407422738234543162010-04-16T10:07:00.001+01:002010-04-16T10:07:08.022+01:00snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-10241214690010279282010-03-20T14:06:00.006Z2010-03-22T22:43:29.086ZA few facts about UniteTories appear to be thrilled that BA has pulled out of talks with Unite, which means a three-day strike will go ahead. They are in full cry against Unite, convinced it's just like 1979 and bashing the unions will mean they soar in the polls again.However, it's 2010 and some things are different. For instance, in 1979, most union members voted Labour. That's decidedly not the case now.Populus did snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-86012829906634267762010-03-20T14:06:00.001Z2010-03-20T14:06:54.275Zsnowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-77096651463489597432010-03-12T06:49:00.005Z2010-03-12T07:33:53.026ZWeighing into this poll weighting controversyThe latest YouGov poll shows Labour at 34%, just three points behind the Tories on 37%. But how believable is this? I must admit to doing a double-take when I saw the figures. So I did what I haven't done for some time - I actually went to the YouGov site to look at their tables.The tables for the latest poll arn't up, but yesterdays (which had Con 37%, Lab 32%) was there.YouGov weight by snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-9620531105030741342010-03-12T06:49:00.001Z2010-03-12T06:49:40.623Zsnowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-74162971001001344082010-03-07T14:12:00.004Z2010-03-07T14:23:13.888ZThe Change Election was 2005Voters have a eight-year tolerance for prime ministers. Any longer than that, and they get restive and fretful. We saw that in the run-up to the 2005 election, where large amounts of left-of-centre people were fed-up with Blair and his zeal to get us involved in wars that had nothing to do with us.Luckily for Labour, Blair announced unprompted in late 2004 that he was standing down in the next snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-43337995127067944462010-03-07T14:12:00.001Z2010-03-07T14:12:24.696Zsnowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-18941928917096879082010-02-08T23:08:00.013Z2010-02-09T00:34:34.184ZHouse prices and the Labour voteEven the most hardened anti-Labour activists have noticed that Labour has been recovering slowly but surely in the polls. YouGov put us at 24% just before the Labour party conference in September 2009. The latest YouGov poll showed Labour at 31%. That's a shift of some 7 points in six months. Muttering "it's within the margin of error" each time there is a poll doesn't magic away the trend. So snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-53917251030172417872010-02-08T23:08:00.001Z2010-02-08T23:08:27.127Zsnowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-73018095122160262412010-01-06T23:30:00.005Z2010-01-07T00:11:08.476ZWhat were they thinking?Today's events were topped off by a new YouGov poll showing Labour at 31% - just 9 points behind the Tories - part of the trend since the party conferences last autumn, where we've been slowly clawing our way back. We need around 34% to be able to be in with a shout of forming a government.Amid this trend, and with the public recoiling from the giant airbrushed David Cameron pictures unleashed onsnowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-14974634122589682942010-01-06T23:30:00.001Z2010-01-06T23:30:19.120Zsnowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-71272762343621323502010-01-05T15:24:00.004Z2010-01-05T15:43:04.963ZTories bank on an Airbrushed David CameronLooks like the Tories have already started their election campaign, spending £500,000 on a poster campaign trying to get as much spending done before the election starting gun is fired (when election spending regulations will apply for the duration of the campaign).What is interesting about their campaign is that even the Conservative party logo was omitted from the posters, and the Daily Mail snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-1038460203507200392010-01-05T15:24:00.001Z2010-01-05T15:24:44.714Zsnowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-67265419330230787912009-12-24T10:07:00.006Z2009-12-24T11:54:55.131ZThe Coming British General ElectionJackie Ashley wrote an interesting article in the Guardian recently, where she examined the tactics that Labour has been using against the Conservatives.She observes correctly that the public don't really view Cameron as an extreme Thatcherite regardless of what his actual policies are - his persona is comfortably fat and fluffy. (She didn't point out that George Osborne does look hatchet-faced, snowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com14tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29618513.post-10029981939679994502009-12-24T10:07:00.001Z2009-12-24T10:07:51.265Zsnowflake5http://www.blogger.com/profile/14700425293614182769noreply@blogger.com0