Certain to Vote

It's well-known that Labour supporters are less likely to vote than voters of other parties, and the latest polls from ICM confirm this. What is interesting is how big the gap is between Labour voters and the others.

The results of the August ICM poll were as follows:

Con 40%
Lab 31%
Lib 22%

The figures on Certainty to Vote were as follows:

Con 64%
Lab 49%
Lib 56%

The July ICM results were as follows:

Con 39%
Lab 35%
Lib 17%

and the figures on Certainty to Vote were:

Con 64%
Lab 55%
Lib 52%


I would have liked to compare the June ICM poll too, but unfortunately the ICM web-site has incorrectly linked June06 to the Aug2004 pdf.

It's quite clear that as certainty to vote increases, the results for Labour and Lib Dem go up, and vice versa. The conclusion must be that in order to win the next general election, Labour must make every effort to get the vote out. If we could match the Tory turnout, we'd have another landslide. How to get the turnout up is another matter though.