Blair Resigns

So the day has come at last and I feel a mixture of sadness and relief. Labour would not have been elected in 1997 without Blair, and without being elected the subsequent stability and prosperity would never have happened (the Tories would have had another recession in 2001, it's what Tories do, and the story would have been about distress and hardship for ordinary people). At the same time, it's right that Blair is going, with his judgement on foreign policy increasingly at odds with the voters (see Lebanon last year).

I think that Labour has handled the transition remarkably well.

Blair announced that he would step down this parliament in Sept 2004, a good eight months before the general election. Voters went to the polls in 2005 knowing exactly what would happen (in contrast to voters in 1987, who voted thinking Thatcher would go "on and on"). In addition, during the election campaign of 2005, Alasdair Campbell over-ruled the Blairite factionalists and not only involved Gordon Brown in the campaign, but sent him round the country with Blair, to send out the clear message of "vote Blair, get Brown" (to Campbell's credit, he always puts Labour party interests over those of factions). Some Tories claim that their own voters were so dim that they didn't understand that Blair would step down and Brown succeed him. But it's fair to say that the vast majority of voters are not dim and understood the message clearly. It's precisely because these events were flagged well in advance that there has been no shock in the country at Blair's resignation, nor any turmoil in the markets (unlike when Thatcher stepped down).

The next stage was to get Blair to set a date. The long goodbye has been frustrating and debilitating (the fall in the polls over the last year is down to drift and lack of strategy at the top), but in the long run it may prove to have been the correct thing to do it this way.

People forget that Prime Ministers are human beings too. It must be awful to have to let go of a job you love to bits, before you are ready. To be actually sacked, like Thatcher, Charlie Kennedy and Charles Clarke, in full glare of the public, with all the humiliation that entails, must be devastating. I imagine they must go through the grieving process; denial, anger, depression and finally acceptance. It was in the Labour party's interests that Blair underwent this in the controlled conditions of government and made the final resignation speech only when he'd reached acceptance. To be tossed out suddenly means ricocheting uncontrollably in the world at large - people who get sacked in this manner stay in the anger phase too long, only look at Charles Clarke (though he seems to have come out of it at last and is now somewhere between depression and acceptance).

Mrs Thatcher stayed in the anger phase for years on end. In 1995 she gave an influential interview praising Blair and New Labour to the skies - of course she didn't care about New Labour in the slightest, it was all about sticking it to the Major government and those who'd knifed her. But it had an effect, she persuaded lots of staunch Tory voters that it was safe to abstain, and the huge majority of 1997 was in part due to these abstentions.

Cameron had this in mind when he styled himself the "heir to Blair". He must have been hoping that Labour would knife Blair and that Blair, angry and hurt, would turn on Labour and endorse Cameron, repeating what Thatcher did. But it hasn't worked out that way. Blair does not rate Cameron, and he likes to contrast his self-made father with the lazy aristocracy that Cameron hails from. The Labour party has proved to be at once shrewder and more humane than the Tories. As a result Blair leaves with some dignity and with acceptance of the situation, and he continues to wish the party well ("wherever I am, whatever I do, I'll be with you"). The Labour party retains it's reputation for patience and loyalty to the leadership. Labour are the only party left with these virtues (the Lib Dems appear to be turning into the Tories mark two as knives sharpen to stab Ming barely a year after they stabbed Kennedy). The public likes the idea of unity, patience and loyalty, and the manner of Blair's exit should do Labour credit.