Wednesday, May 16, 2007

Will the LibDems change their leader?

The Times today reports on opinion poll findings thus:

According to the poll, 54 per cent of Lib Dem voters say that the party would do better to get rid of him, while just 39 per cent believe that he should stay. This means that Lib Dem voters are more hostile than the public generally, who favour his departure by a 45 to 33 per cent margin.

Which is extraordinary as Ming Campbell has only been in his job some 16 months. Will LibDem party members really go for another leadership contest, and have they really got anyone to fill Mr Campbell's shoes?

And arn't they in danger of turning into the Tories Mark II? Jonathan Freedland in the Guardian notes that the Tories had contests and/or changed their leader in 1995, 1997, 2001, 2003 and 2005. I must admit I hadn't realised it had been that frequent (William Hague managed to last about 4 years, will Cameron manage to match him?). Labour's last leadership contest was in 1994, we're changing leader this year and that should be it for the next eight years. The LibDems had a contest in 1999 and then in 2006.

The press of course loves leadership contests. Witness the way they tried to manoeuvre the Labour party, promoting John Reid, Alan Johnson and David Miliband in quick succession in order to derail Brown. Labour however operates to it's own rhythms. Not for us this constant upheaval and wasting of time and energy changing leaders when there's more important things to do. But will the LibDems be able to withstand the press and put their own interests before the media's? And what if they go for a new leader but he doesn't turn round their fortunes? Another contest next year? I suppose we in Labour should encourage it, if it keeps the media busy.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

'Labour however operates to it's own rhythms. Not for us this constant upheaval and wasting of time and energy changing leaders when there's more important things to do.'

Seems that you have forgotten that Labour had 5 differnt leaders from 79 to 84,or doesn't that fit with the narrative?

snowflake5 said...

anonymous - ??? Where did you get five leaders from 1979 to 1984 You made it up?

FYI, Callaghan was leader from 1976 to 1980, Michael Foot was leader from 1980 to 1983 and Neil Kinnock was leader from 1983 to 1993.

Labour has only had 20 leaders since 1900, when the party was founded, and that includes Margaret Beckett's caretaker leadership after the death of John Smith.

Most serve very long periods: Blair, 13 years; Kinnock, nearly 9 years; Harold Wilson, 13 years; Gaitskell, 7 years; Attlee, 20 years; Ramsey MacDonald, nearly 9 years. The leaders with short duration tend to be from 1906 to 1922, those who've sadly died early like Smith and caretaker leaders like Beckett.

Danivon said...

snowflake - you don't expect wisdom or even basic fact checking from the anonymous troll do you?

By the way, from 1906 to 1922, the leadership of the PLP was not seen as being as pivotal as it is now, and the position would rotate from year to year between a handful of people. Since then, when it became clear with the collapse of the Liberal that a Labour leader was a potential PM, it became more important.