Thousand barrels 1997 2007 change b/d 2007
daily ten year share
period of
total
US 18621 20698 2077 23.9%
Canada 1888 2303 415 2.6%
Mexico 1767 2024 257 2.3%
Total North America 22276 25024 2748 28.7%
Argentina 451 492 41 0.6%
Brazil 1968 2192 224 2.4%
Chile 242 342 100 0.4%
Colombia 272 228 -44 0.3%
Ecuador 142 181 39 0.2%
Peru 154 145 -9 0.2%
Venezuela 452 596 144 0.7%
Other S. & Cent. Americ 1110 1317 207 1.6%
Total S. & Cent. America4790 5493 703 6.4%
Austria 246 281 35 0.3%
Azerbaijan 110 93 -17 0.1%
Belarus 179 145 -34 0.2%
Belgium & Luxembourg 629 839 210 1.0%
Bulgaria 92 120 28 0.1%
Czech Republic 170 210 40 0.3%
Denmark 229 197 32 0.2%
Finland 213 226 13 0.3%
France 1948 1919 –29 2.3%
Germany 2913 2393 -600 2.8%
Greece 379 443 64 0.5%
Hungary 150 168 18 0.2%
Iceland 18 21 3
Republic of Ireland 136 198 62 0.2%
Italy 1969 1745 –224 2.1%
Kazakhstan 213 219 6 0.3%
Lithuania 66 61 -5 0.1%
Netherlands 856 1044 188 1.2%
Norway 223 221 -2 0.3%
Poland 391 532 141 0.6%
Portugal 293 302 9 0.4%
Romania 276 229 -47 0.3%
Russian Federation 2689 2699 10 3.2%
Slovakia 72 80 8 0.1%
Spain 1290 1615 325 2.0%
Sweden 336 364 28 0.4%
Switzerland 276 243 -33 0.3%
Turkey 646 666 20 0.8%
Turkmenistan 67 107 40 0.1%
Ukraine 292 325 33 0.4%
United Kingdom 1752 1696 -56 2.0%
Uzbekistan 145 119 -26 0.1%
Other Europe & Eurasia 474 581 107 0.7%
Total Europe & Eurasia 19738 20100 362 24.0%
Iran 1239 1621 382 1.9%
Kuwait 139 276 137 0.4%
Qatar 38 95 57 0.1%
Saudi Arabia 1391 2154 763 2.5%
United Arab Emirates 345 450 105 0.6%
Other Middle East 1272 1608 336 1.9%
Total Middle East 4423 6203 1780 7.4%
Algeria 187 270 83 0.3%
Egypt 531 651 120 0.8%
South Africa 444 549 105 0.7%
Other Africa 1146 1485 339 1.8%
Total Africa 2307 2955 648 3.5%
Australia 822 935 113 1.1%
Bangladesh 69 102 33 0.1%
China 4179 7855 3676 9.3%
China Hong Kong SAR 192 341 149 0.4%
India 1828 2748 920 3.3%
Indonesia 963 1157 194 1.4%
Japan 5762 5051 -711 5.8%
Malaysia 431 514 83 0.6%
New Zealand 131 151 20 0.2%
Pakistan 339 362 23 0.5%
Philippines 389 298 -91 0.4%
Singapore 630 917 287 1.2%
South Korea 2373 2371 -2 2.7%
Taiwan 773 1123 350 1.3%
Thailand 785 911 126 1.1%
Other Asia Pacific 399 608 209 0.7%
Total Asia Pacific 20063 25444 5381 30.0%
TOTAL WORLD 73598 85220 11622 100.0%
The first thing to notice is that demand in Europe plus Eurasia has been flattish. While the Benelux countries, Spain, Ireland and Poland have increased consumption strongly, the big countries, France, United Kingdom, Italy and especially Germany have all taken pains to reduce demand and have succeeded in doing so. The world oil spike is not caused by Europe & Eurasia.
The big surprise is how much oil is being consumed in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia, population 27 million, consumes more oil than the UK, population 62 million. Indeed while India, population 1 billion, increased demand by 920k barrels a day over the decade, Saudi increased consumption by 763k barrels a day over that same period, and most of that increase in demand has taken place in the last five years. Clearly, the people in these countries are flush from earnings from oil, but they are pricing it very cheaply domestically, which means that it's being consumed as though it was practically free. This is in contrast to the approach taken by Norway and the Russian Federation, who have preferred to keep domestic demand low in order to export as much as possible (Norway's fuel tax is the most eye-watering on earth).
Another surprise is Singapore, population 4.6 million, which uses 917k barrels a day while Ireland, population 6 million, uses 198k barrels a day - even though Singapore is a city-state and you would think they didn't need much oil for transportation at all. South Korea's consumption is pretty big, given their population of 48 million, as is Australia's (population 21 million). Japan has reduced consumption, but are still consuming a stonking amount given that they are just 125 million people.
Poor China and India have been blamed for the increased world demand for oil, but their consumption is actually reasonable and moderate given their huge populations and rapid industrialisation.
The real culprits are the other Asia Pacific countries, who subsidise oil, and the Middle East. And of course the United States.
From a European point of view, it's rather depressing. We didn't cause the problem and are already doing everything we can to reduce oil demand, so can't really do much more to solve the problem either. We can only wait on the rest of the world to see sense, and do what we did 25 years ago, which is to take steps to reduce oil demand using the tax system. Our only consolation is that by acting early, we have made our economies less dependent on oil and therefore more resilient to the shock than other economies.
China and India have already reacted - China reduced subsidies putting prices up by 18%, and India has reduced subsidies, putting prices up by 10%. But it's not really enough. The problem won't be solved until the USA and the rich Asia Pacific countries act. People should expect no help from the Middle East - demand there will continue to increase profligately as long as they are earning tons from oil.
1 comment:
Singapore's usage could be to do with it's huge ports. they are a bit of a stop off point for cargo ships so I wonder whether it's due to ship refuelling. other than that interesting post
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