Friday, September 22, 2006

Insights into Leadership from the Polls

The Sunday Mirror ICM poll, which was caried out on the 13th and 14th September was spun as "Labour voters prefer Blair", notwithstanding that Labour voters had shrunk to a poor 33%. The details of the poll proved much more interesting though.

The results were

Con 37%
Lab 33%
Lib 21%
Oth 8%

Certainty to vote showed

Con 71%
Lab 59%
Lib 54%
Oth 40%

The Labour certainty to vote is an improvement on previous polls, but the Tories also improve to an astonishing 71%

Breakdown of certainty to vote into social groups gave

AB 55%
C1 48%
C2 44%
DE 53%

Overall 50%

Now the interesting bit. On who would you like to be next Labour leader and hence PM

Gordon Brown 33% 32% 32% 38% 30%

John Reid 7% 6% 9% 8% 7%

Charles Clarke 5% 5% 4% 7% 6%

Alan Johnson 4% 5% 3% 1% 5%

David Milliband 2% 1% 2% 1% 2%

Someone Else 21% 20% 25% 20% 17%

None of These 7% 7% 6% 8% 8%

Don't know 20% 22% 19% 15% 25%

The most striking thing is that Someone Else scored 21% along with 7% saying
None of These, totalling 28%. It's possible that the "None of these" make up die hards in other parties who think no Labour person is good enough. But the "someone else" should provide food for thought.

Gordon Brown's support comes from the C2's - the group least likely to vote! If he wins, the party should be thinking furiously how to increase turnout from this group. Alan Johnson's support comes from AB's (who've probably been reading puff pieces in the Times and Guardian) and DE's (who are probably attracted to the working class aspect). The other thing is that the "Don't knows" are 20%. Any of the candidates could pick up this vote, if they shine in the leadership election.


Aaron Murin-Heath said...

Excellent roundup Snowflake

Anonymous said...

Good piece Snowflake, though you should always be a bit careful using the subsets in any one poll - they're so small that they have very large margins of error.

As you rightly note, the "Cameron effect" is as much about mobilising the Tory base as winning over swing voters.